(Disclaimer: The contents of this post are my
expressions of what I have understood of the main ideas expressed and issues
raised in the book.)
Professor Nordhaus, along with Paul Romer, won the 2018 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic
Sciences)
Issues relating to climate change post the Industrial
Revolution can perhaps be presented as The Four Ignoble and Fearsome Truths:
·
There is measurable global
warming since the Industrial Revolution
·
Global warming is due to
human actions -- the increasing use (ie: burning) of fossil fuels to generate energy to power
the growing production of goods and services to meet the consumption needs of a
growing population
·
The consequences of
continuing global warming are likely to be catastrophic for
the earth and its inhabitants, especially the poorer ones
·
There is a way to avert
these dangers but it requires concerted action and political
commitment by nation states that is not much in evidence.
These truths need some elaboration.
The growth of population due to progress in medical
science and the growth of production possibilities due to revolutions in
technology has led to huge increases in the use -- by burning -- of fossil
fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) for energy generation. This in turn has
released -- and continues to do so -- growing amounts of Carbon di-oxide into
the atmosphere. Some of this CO2 is absorbed in the earth and in vegetation and
some in the oceans but there are large volumes that persist in the atmosphere.
This causes global warming and the science here is devastatingly simple. The
energy from the sun comes in through this CO2 layer without any problem, but
when the earth tries to balance matters by radiating energy back into space -- as
it does regularly -- the CO2 layer stops a significant portion of it because
the energy that the earth radiates has a frequency different from the incoming
radiation and the CO2 layer acts as a blanket for this outgoing type of
radiation. Thus balance cannot be maintained and there is global warming.
The slow but steady increase in average global
temperature over an extended period of time has been measured by scientists, as
has been the dramatic increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The
consequences of global warming will increasingly be seen in rising sea levels
due to melting of polar ice sheets, changes in ocean currents and consequent
changes in weather patterns, changes in precipitation levels and water
availability in rivers due to glaciers’ melting, changing occurrences and
intensity of hurricanes, droughts, increasing acidification of oceans and
adverse consequences for coral and other marine life. If any of the major
climatic consequences of global warming go beyond a ‘tipping point’ the impact
on life on earth may well be catastrophic.
Powering economic growth by fossil fuel based energy
systems has led to global warming but the ‘invisible hand’ so beloved of
economists does not automatically make any corrections to fix this monumental
problem .The reason for this is that the ‘cost’ of CO2 emissions -- the damage
done by them -- is not factored into any economic transaction. Those who create
CO2 emissions do not pay for the damage done and those who suffer are not
compensated. The consequences of global warming are thus ‘external’ to the
market transactions that create it. And because the market does not take
account of and therefore handle such negative ‘externalities’, state
intervention becomes essential to tackle them.
Fundamentally, the carbon intensity of production has
to be drastically reduced so that carbon emissions are cut down such that the
rising trend of average global temperature is checked. Essentially, technology
has to be leveraged to reduce the burning of fossil fuels and still maintain
production to meet the needs of global populations. There are obvious issues
here, especially those relating to global inequalities and coordination of
national efforts, and the issue of ‘free riders’, who may stand to benefit from
international efforts without participating in and paying for such efforts. The
gravity of the situation, however, necessitates concerted global action,
howsoever difficult it may be; the consequences of not taking action are far
too serious.
The political consequences of action to control and
reduce global warming are likely to be difficult to manage. Energy sources that
are safer are, for now, more expensive and people will have to suffer higher
costs of consumption if such sources are used to replace fossil fuels. And if
production of goods and services is to be in any way controlled who will get
less and who more? The poor of this earth already have very little and need and
want more, but will the rich agree to reduce their consumption and allow the
poor to consume more? Will the rich nations pay for the poor to switch to
expensive energy systems? The rich nations use and waste the most energy to
power their luxury lifestyles and most of this energy comes from fossil fuel
burning. How will these manifestations of ‘development’ be regulated?
It is no surprise therefore, that there are powerful
nay-sayers in the developed world who are vociferous in their rejection of
scientific research that establishes global warming and highlights its dangers.
And the rejections are primarily on ideological grounds -- political expediency
rather than scientific reasoning.
It can be argued that this book was published about
seven years ago -- in 2013 -- and its dire conclusions may not be valid today.
A look at the data available to the author and that available today from the
World Meteorological Organization’s report on the Global Climate in 2019
dispels any such doubts.
The author had, from established research, indicated
that CO2 concentrations were 280ppm in 1750 and 390 ppm in 2013 and would
probably reach 700-900ppm by 2100 if serious measures to control this were not
taken. This would in turn lead to a rise in average temperatures of 3-5 degree
Celsius.
The World Meteorological Organization’s Statement of
the Global Climate in 2019 records that CO2 concentrations in 2018 were 407.8
ppm. In addition, other green-house gases, methane and nitrous oxide, also
recorded very high concentrations which were 259% and 123% of their pre
industrial levels. The Statement further indicates that the global mean
temperature for 2019 was 1.1 degree Celsius above pre industrial levels.
In sum, global warming cannot be denied; its cause,
burning of fossil fuel for cheap energy, is categorically established and the
negative impact of warming on a large number of critical environmental
parameters is visible. If unchecked, global warming will severely impact
earth’s weather patterns and environment, and this will have severely negative
consequences for the quality of human life and the survival of many other
species on planet earth.
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